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Here are my final picks and predictions for the 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. I've valued the Big 12 ahead of the Big East; like a few upsets in the first two rounds (go Racers! and go Saints!); and think that Butler has a legitimate shot to be playing in Indianapolis in the Final Four.
Enjoy the madness and here we go....!
FIRST-ROUND WINNERS
EAST: Kentucky, Wake Forest, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Clemson, West Virginia
SOUTH: Duke, Louisville, Texas A&M, Siena, Notre Dame, Baylor, St. Mary's, Villanova
MIDWEST: Kansas, Northern Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland, San Diego State, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
WEST: Syracuse, Florida State, Butler, Murray State, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas State
SECOND ROUND
EAST: Kentucky over Wake Forest; Cornell over Wisconsin; New Mexico over Marquette; West Virginia over Clemson.
SOUTH: Duke over Louisville; Siena over Texas A&M; Notre Dame over Baylor; St. Mary's over Villanova.
MIDWEST: Kansas over Northern Iowa; Michigan State over Maryland; Georgetown over San Diego State; Ohio State over Oklahoma State.
WEST: Syracuse over Florida State; Butler over Murray State; Pitt over Minnesota; Kansas State over BYU.
ROUND OF 16:
EAST: Kentucky over Cornell; West Virginia over New Mexico.
SOUTH: Duke over Siena; Notre Dame over St. Mary's.
MIDWEST: Kansas over Michigan State; Georgetown over Ohio State.
WEST: Butler over Syracuse; Kansas State over Pitt.
ROUND OF 8
EAST: Kentucky over West Virginia.
SOUTH: Duke over Notre Dame.
MIDWEST: Kansas over Georgetown.
WEST: Kansas State over Butler.
NATIONAL SEMI-FINAL
Kentucky over Duke
Kansas over Kansas State
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Kansas 85 Kentucky 80
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Mark S
fri mar 19 2010
at 11:02 am
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Paul, I always like to see how you pick em because you are knowledgable and I notice I often think very similiar to you. :) Of the first 16 I picked the same as you except I had UNLV, so you got me by 12-11. I did not have Notre Dame into the sweet 16 and I have Ohio State over Georgetown (thankfully). I also have Kansas to win but I could not put UK in the final 4. Go Badgers - defense & boards! I probably let my emotions rule that pick but we shall see. As talented as the Cats are I had to take a stand against the hype. |
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STATS
Season--
Straight Up: 173-83 68% Against-The-Spread: 143-107-6 57%
Playoffs--
Straight-up: 4-6 Against-The-Spread: 4-6
The NFL Championship Game - Super Bowl Sunday: Feb. 7, 2010
NEW ORLEANS v. INDIANAPOLIS
Much has been written and too much said about this game. This match-up v. that match-up, this guy v. that guy, this 4th receiver v. that 5 cornerback...it's been an exhausting couple of weeks.
Peyton Manning is a superior talent. He has elevated the quarterback position with his attention to detail and preparation. When it comes to preparation, he has no equal. When it comes to play on the field, he lives among the Pantheon of the all-time greats.
New Orleans will try, desperately, to knock him out of his rhythm; off his game. They've talked about it considerably for this fortnight, but I don't see the Saints defense accomplishing that goal. They'll look to hit Peyton often, and, as they've done all season, look for their opportunities to strip the ball from backs and receivers. The Saints thrive on turnovers.
The Colts' defense, predicated on speed and quickness, is the better, more consistent defense in this game. If injured Colts DE Dwight Freeney can contribute, that will be a bonus. I expect to see him on the field, but not having much of an effect.
The game will be decided by turnovers. Watch the Saints get a little too aggressive trying to cause turnovers and then watch the Colts make them pay for that. Peyton and his bunch will get the big scores in the fourth quarter. Colts take the prize.
INDIANAPOLIS 34 NEW ORLEANS 24
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STATS
Season--
Straight-Up: 173-83 68% Against-the-Spread: 143-107-6 57%
Playoffs:
Straight-up: 3-5 Against-the-Spread: 2-6
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Jan. 24, 2010
NY Jets at Indianapolis (-8) 3p
No rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl. And no rookie quarterback has had to beat Peyton Manning in order to go to the Super Bowl. Those are some big stats the Jets and their rookie quarterback, Matt Sanchez, must overcome.
Don't get me wrong, the Jets can definitely win this game. How? I point to a Jets running game that's averaged 200 yards in their last four games; and a defense ranked #1 overall in the NFL; and a team that's been galvinized by a loud-and-proud-talking, no-fear-of-anything head coach who reminded his players how the Colts disrespected the Jets, the NFL and all of professional sports for laying down and not playing to the end in their week 15 game. But I keep thinking about that rookie quarterback and his sub-standard passing game.
In 2004 Ben Roethlisberger won 13 consecutive regular season games leading the Steelers to a sparkling 15-1 mark. Their first playoff game was a disaster for Big Ben, but the team eeked-out a win in overtime. His next playoff game, at home v. New England with the AFC title on the line, Big Ben choked his way to three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Even bigger disaster than his first game. The comparison between Sanchez and Roethlisberger as rookies is a no-contest win for Big Ben.
Peyton Manning is 1-2 in AFC Championship games and has been a consistent playoff disappointment. But this is one game for which Manning and the Colts will be primed to give a top-shelf performance. I see the Colts defense attacking Sanchez repeatedly with their speed rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. I see Dallas Clark open over the middle early and often throughout the game. I see rookie RB Donald Brown making big plays in the red zone and catching the ball out of the backfield. Peyton makes it back to Super Bowl.
Indianapolis 20 NY Jets 10
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5) 6:40p
Big names with big games abound in this one: Favre, Brees, Peterson, Bush and several more. But I want to focus on one player here and that's Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. I will be watching him with great intent in this game.
See, this type of occasion only happens once. Peterson is one of the top 3 players in the league and he has never experienced the pressure and the bright lights of a Championship game. I want to see how he responds to this challenge. I think Peterson is the determining factor for the Vikings in this game. If he runs with the abandon and rage and power and speed with which fans have been treated for his three years, the Vikes will get the win. If Peterson is rendered just-another-guy, the Saints get the nod.
But that type of if/then stuff doesn't work in this column. I see Peterson having a monster game against the 21st ranked defense against the run and the 26th ranked defense against the pass. Peterson left; Peterson right; Peterson up the middle; Peterson out of the backfield catching passes. And when Peterson gets tired, in comes Chester Taylor and his quick feet to compliment him.
I like this Saints team and their story this year, but I just don't see enough substance on the defensive side of the ball to pick them to win this game. They've done it with turnovers and big plays, but they sure do give up a lot of yards and a lot of points. Sure they're at home and the crowd will be rockin', but I'll take that anvil-of-a-running back and that old, creaky quarterback and that relentless pass rush of the Vikes here.
Minnesota 24 New Orleans 23
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STATS
Last Week --
Straight-up: 1-3 Against-the-Spread: 2-2
Season--
Straight-up: 173-83 68% Against-the-Spread: 143-107-6 57%
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS -- Saturday, January 16, 2010
Arizona at New Orleans (-7) 4:30p
Difficult to pick against a Kurt Warner led team in the playoffs. After all, the man is a completion machine in the NFL post-season tournament. Take last week's effort for example: 5 touchdown passes and only 4 incomplete throws. But he's got a tough task ahead of him at New Orleans. Not only will he have to overcome a potent Saints' offense, but that rowdy New Orleans' crowd as well. I like the Saints here but I'll take those 7 points. Something tells me that Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt will find a way to keep his team in the hunt till the very end. Unless, of course, Warner gives a mediocre performance.
New Orleans 38 Arizona 33
Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5) 8:15p
The Colts have not played meaningful football in nearly a month. That has proven to be their downfall in the past and it is just not a practice I appreciate or in which I place much stock. They are tempting fate. But with Peyton Manning on your side, you can take a jab or two at the gods and still win. Heck, they won several games this season in just that manner.
When these teams met November 22, the Ravens were driving for a go-ahead field goal with less than 4 minutes to go when QB Joe Flacco tossed an interception at the 13 yard line. Peyton and crew ran out the clock for the win. This game will be another close one. Yes, the Colts have won 7 straight against the Ravens and 8 looks quite possible.
You want a formula for a Ravens win? Check the blueprint laid out by the Steelers in the 2005 post season. That Steelers squad was run-heavy, just like the Ravens. They ran a lot of play-action early in the game and Big Ben hit his targets. But that was Big Ben and this is Joe Flacco. Flacco's injured and not nearly as talented as Big Ben. The call here is the Colts...who narrowly escape with the win.
Indianapolis 19 Baltimore 17
Sunday, Jan. 17, 2010
Dallas at Minnesota (-2.5) 1p
Would love to see Favre and the Vikings move on here, but that Cowboys defense is just too strong. I think the Vikings peaked in November and have not played to that level since. Favre was spraying the ball late in the season and was not nearly as accurate as he was early. The entire team has faded in the last 4 to 6 weeks: offensive line problems, not much of a ground attack from Adrian Peterson, not too many big plays from their passing game and a defense that looks a bit weary. Where have you been, Jared Allen?
The Cowboys are peaking. Now. Defense is playing lights-out and dominating the line of scrimmage. Offense is working in all facets of their attack: on the ground with M. Barber, F. Jones and T. Choice, and through the air with M. Austin, J. Witten, R. Williams and P. Crayton. Dallas, once again, has too much positive momentum to overlook. What does positive momentum mean? It means they have too much talent playing very, very well at the right time.
Dallas 27 Minnesota 17
NY Jets at San Diego (-7) 4:40p
The Jets can win this game, but I won't guarantee it. I think their run game will give the Chargers fits early, but it won't be enough to win like it was last week at Cincy. QB Mark Sanchez will have to produce more than he has all year for the Jets to secure this win and I just don't see that.
What I do see is a great match-up between Chargers WR Vincent Jackson and Jets CB Darrelle Revis. And I see Jets FS Kerry Rhodes making big plays as well. But who is going to cover TE Antonio Gates? Or Malcolm Floyd? Or Legedu Naane? Not to mention L.T. or Darren Sproles...?
I'll take the Chargers here. Their 11 game win streak--yeah, 11 games...didn't realize that, did you?--has been marked by a strong passing game and running game that puts the finishing touches on their wins. They get the nod and move on to the AFC Championship.
San Diego 26 NY Jets 20
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