For more than a year, I've been anticipating a Trey Grayson versus Jack Conway/Dan Mongiardo senate race in 2010. However, with recent developments that scenario could be in peril.
With Grayson facing an unexpectedly strong Rand Paul challenge, and the two Democrats acting like kids fighting over a candy bar, the race is not shaping up the way I thought.
Ultimately I think Grayson will be too much for Paul's insurgent candidacy despite Paul raising serious money via online donors. That being the case -- I'll also make the argument that a Grayson win may not be the best outcome for Kentucky Republicans.
With no real challenger to Governor Steve Beshear on the horizon for 2011, Grayson could be an exceptionally strong GOP gubernatorial candidate. So far only Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer has even been mentioned as a serious Republican challenger. But while Farmer's name recognition is sky-high, he's widely considered too inexperienced to handle the top job.
Consider now what happens if Grayson should lose the Senate race. A 2011 Grayson/Farmer ticket would be a potential juggernaut. Grayson adding experience, and substance -- while Farmer brings the star power.
The Kentucky GOP obviously wants to win every election -- as it should, but a Grayson Senate loss could assure the GOP will have a viable 2011 slate. Not to mention a real party leader for many years to come.
If Beshear would stumble and Grayson won the governorship, it could set up an eight-year run for the GOP in the Governor's office, and possibly longer if Farmer can demonstrate he's more than just a big name former basketball star.
Of course if Grayson wins the Senate race all of that scenario goes out the window. If that occurs, State Senate President David Williams could emerge as a likely front runner in 2011 if he chooses to run. No matter who is at the top of the 2011 GOP ticket for Governor, strong consideration must be given to Farmer as the number two man. If Williams and Farmer join forces, the GOP could still have a legitimate shot to oust Beshear, but much depends on the outcome of the next legislative session.
A Grayson/Farmer ticket would put two proven statewide vote-getting machines in the mix. So while I have always liked and admired Trey Grayson -- his loss in the 2010 Senate race could be a big long-term win for the Kentucky Republican Party.
Very interesting observations from someone who has been around Kentucky politics long enough to have a good feel for the way the political winds are blowing. I must say though that I think it is highly unlikely that Governor Beshear could be unseated on his bid for re-election. But in the world of politics anything is possible. Watch Rand Paul. He could well be the big surprise of this political season. I look forward to reading your blogs.
For more than a year, I've been anticipating a Trey Grayson versus Jack Conway/Dan Mongiardo senate race in 2010. However, with recent developments that scenario could be in peril.
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Al Mayo